SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV
ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA June 22, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV
All solar indicators rose this week. New sunspots emerged, and the
average daily sunspot number for this week rose over 43 points.
Average solar flux was up 32 points. 289 was the sunspot number on
Sunday, the highest since April 1, when it was 320. Around the end
of March there was a huge increase in sunspots, which will probably
move the smoothed value for the peak of Cycle 23 to a later season
than earlier assumed. Over the past two weeks we have witnessed
another large run up in activity, although not quite as sharp but
perhaps a little more sustained than the increase at the end of
March.
A strong interplanetary shock wave struck earth on Monday, beginning
its journey last Friday from a coronal mass ejection. The ejection
was not aimed toward earth, but as it expanded through the gaseous
interplanetary medium it created a shock wave that affected earth's
magnetosphere. The result was a planetary A index on Monday of 34.
Solar flux for Friday through Monday is expected to be 205, 205, 200
and 195. Geomagnetic conditions should be fairly stable, with a
predicted planetary A index of 10, 10, 10 and 12 for the same days.
Interest in conditions for Field Day this weekend is running high.
We have just passed the summer solstice, and from now until the end
of the year the days get shorter. Several months from now we will be
back to fall conditions, with better 12 and 10 meter openings,
especially in the higher latitudes.
But this weekend Field Day operators will not be concentrating on
working DX, because the focus of the operating event is on making
lots of contacts while operating in the field. We will present some
path projections, but the targets will all be domestic. For those
interested in racking up points, remember that the emphasis is on
the number of contacts, not number of states, sections or countries
worked, since those don't count for multipliers.
Here are the path projections, based on an average solar flux of
203. Since Alaska and Hawaii are often neglected in this bulletin,
we will begin with them. The lists will get shorter for subsequent
target areas, because the same paths have already been shown in a
previous target. Remember the paths work both ways. If you want to
do your own projections, download W6ELprop from
http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/.
From Alaska:
To Hawaii, 80 meters 0630-1400z, 40 meters 0500-1530z, 20 meters
0030-2100z, 15 meters possible openings, but not from 1000-1500z.
To California, 80 meters 0500-1300z, 40 meters 0330-1400z (best
0700-1130z), 20 meters possible 24 hour opening, but strong and
reliable 0400-1400z, 15 meters also possibly open 24 hours, best
0500-0800z, weakest 0930-1200z, 10 meters possibly 1500- 2230z.
To Texas, 80 meters 0600-1100z, 40 meters 0330-1200z, 20 meters
2200-1600z, 15 meters unlikely, especially 0800-1200z.
To the Pacific Northwest (Seattle) 80 meters 0500-1300z, 40 meters
0000-1700z (strongest 0630-1230z), 20 meters open 24 hours,
strongest 0500-1300z, 15 meters possible openings anytime but
0830-1200z.
To the Southeast states (Atlanta), 80 meters 0600-1000z, 40 meters
0400-1130z, 20 meters 0130-1330z, 15 meters possibly open any time
but 0900-1100z.
To Omaha, Nebraska, 80 meters 0600-1030z, 40 meters 0300-1230z, 20
meters open all hours, strongest 0500-1130z, weakest 1800-2130z, 15
meters possibly 1500-1830z.
To Ohio, 80 meters 0600-0930z, 40 meters 0330-1100z, 20 meters
2200-1530z (best 0530-0930z), 15 meters possibly 0000-0530z.
To the Northeast states (Pennsylvania), 80 meters 0630-0900z, 40
meters 0400-1100z, 20 meters 0100-1300z, 15 meters might open any
time, except 0600-1000z.
From Hawaii:
To California, 80 meters 0500-1330z (best 0630-1200z), 40 meters
0330-1500z (best 0530-1230z), 20 meters open all hours, strongest
0530-1300z, weakest 2000-2300z, 15 meters possible openings anytime,
best 0430-0930z or 1630-0100z, 10 meters possibly around 1830z.
To Texas, 80 meters 0500-1200z (strongest 0730-1030z), 40 meters
0400-1300z (best 0600-1100z), 20 meters 0200-1500z (best
0500-1130z), 15 meters open all hours, best 0530-0930z, weakest
1900-2230z, 10 meters may open 1500-1000z, best chance around
0500-0630z.
To Pacific Northwest, 80 meters 0500-1330z (strongest 0700-1130z),
40 meters 0400-1500z (best 0600-1130z), 20 meters open all hours,
best 0530-1230z, weakest 2030-2230z, 15 meters possible openings
anytime, best possibility 0600-1130z.
To Southeast states, 80 meters 0500-1130z (best 0800-0930z), 40
meters 0400-1200z (best 0600-1000z), 20 meters 0200-1400z (best
0530-1030z), 15 meters 0030-1700z (best 0430-0930z), 10 meters
possible openings anytime, best possibility 0430- 0530z.
To Omaha, 80 meters 0500-1200z (best 0730-1000z), 40 meters
0400-1300z (best 0600-1030z), 20 meters 0230-1500z (best
0530-1100z), 15 meters open all hours, best 0400-0800z, weakest
1400-1500z and 1900-2200z, 10 meters possibly open 0400-0700z and
1500-0130z.
To Ohio, 80 meters 0500-1100z (best 0800-0900z), 40 meters
0430-1130z (best 0600-0930z), 20 meters 0230-1400z (best
0530-1000z), 15 meters 0030-1700z (best 0300-0700z), 10 meters may
open, but not 0700-1300z.
To Pennsylvania, 80 meters 0500-1000z, 40 meters 0430-1100z, 20
meters 0230-1330z (best 0600-0900z), 15 meters possibly 0230-0430z.
From California:
To Texas, 80 meters 0200-1230z (best 0430-1030z), 40 meters
2230-1600z, best 0400-1100z), 20 meters open all hours, best
0400-1030z, 15 meters possibly open any time, most likely 1500-
2100z or 0330-0700z, possible 10 meter openings 1530-1700z or
1830-2030z.
To Pacific Northwest (Seattle), 80 meters 0130-1500z (best 0430-
1130z), 40 meters open all hours, best 0500-1100z, 20 meters
possibly open anytime except 0900-1200z.
To Southeast states, 80 meters 0200-1130z (best 0530-0930z), 40
meters 0100-1300z (best 0400-1000z), 20 meters open all hours, best
0400-1000z, 15 meters open all hours, best 0230-0700z), 10 meters
might open any time except 0730-1300z.
To Omaha, 80 meters 0200-1230z (best 0430-1000z), 40 meters open all
hours, best 0430-1000z, weakest 1730-2100z, 20 meters open all
hours, best 0400-1000z, 15 meters might open any time.
To Ohio, 80 meters 0230-1100z (best 0600-0900z), 40 meters
0100-1230z (best 0400-0930z), 20 meters open all hours, best
0400-0930z, weakest 1230-1400z, 15 meters open all hours, best
0230-0500z, weakest 1230-1500z, 10 meters could open any time,
except 0030-0300 and 0600-1300z.
To Pennsylvania, 80 meters 0230-1030z (best 0430-0900z), 40 meters
0100-1200z (best 0430-0830z), 20 meters open all hours, best
0300-0700z, 15 meters possible openings around 0300-0400 or
1330-1930z.
From Texas:
To Pacific Northwest, 80 meters 0230-1200z (best 0600-1030z), 40
meters 0000-1430z (best 0400-1100z), 20 meters 0000-1430z, 15 meters
possible openings anytime, best 0330-0630z, worst 0900-1100z, 10
meters possible opening 1330-2100z.
To Southeast states, 80 meters 2300-1300z (best 0200-1000z), 40
meters open all hours, best 0230-0930z, 20 meters possibly open any
time.
To Omaha, 80 meters 2230-1430z (best 0300-1000z), 40 meters open all
hours, best 0300-1000z, 20 meters possible opening 1230- 0000z or
0230-0400z.
To Ohio, 80 meters 0000-1200z (best 0230-0330z), 40 meters open all
hours, best 0230-0900z, weakest 1700-1900z, 20 meters open all
hours, best 0200-0500z, 15 meters possible opening 1230- 2000z.
To Pennsylvania, 80 meters 0030-1100z (best 0300-0900z), 40 meters
open all hours, best 0230-0830z, weakest 1600-1900z, 20 meters open
all hours, 15 meters may open any time, except 0700-1100z.
From Pacific Northwest:
To Southeast states, 80 meters 0230-1100z (best 0600-0900z), 40
meters 0100-1230z (best 0430-1000z), 20 meters open all hours, best
0400-1000z, 15 meters open all hours, best 0300-0500z, worst
0800-1000 and 1300-1430z, 10 meters might open any time, except
0030-0300 and 0530-1300z.
To Omaha, 80 meters 0230-1200z (best 0530-1000z), 40 meters open all
hours, best 0430-1000z, weakest 1730-2100z, 20 meters open all
hours, 15 meters might open any time, except 0630-1330z.
To Ohio, 80 meters 0230-1100z (best 0600-0830z), 40 meters
0100-1230z (best 0500-0900z), 20 meters 0030-1200z, 15 meters might
open any time, best 0300-0500z, least likely 0700- 1030z.
To Pennsylvania, 80 meters 0230-1030z (best 0630-0800z), 40 meters
0100-1200z (best 0430-0900z), 20 meters open all hours, best
0400-0930z, 15 meters 2130-0600z and 1200-1300z, 10 meters possibly
1300-2030z or 0300-0500z.
From Southeast states:
To Omaha, 80 meters 2330-1230z (best 0200-1000z, especially around
0230-0330z), 40 meters open all hours, best 0230-0930z, weakest
1630-1930z, 20 meters may open any time, least likely 0530-1200z.
To Ohio, 80 meters 2130-1330z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest
0200-0930z, 20 meters possibly 1200-1930z.
To Pennsylvania, 80 meters 2200-1230z (strongest 0130-0830z), 40
meters open all hours, strongest 0130-0900z, 20 meters may open any
time except 0430-1130z.
From Omaha to Ohio, 80 meters 2330-1230z, 40 meters open all hours,
best 0230-0930z, weakest 1600-2000z, 20 meters could open any time,
except 0530-1200z.
To Pennsylvania, 80 meters 0000-1130z, best 0200-0400z, 40 meters
open all hours, best 0230-0900z, weakest 1630-1900z, 20 meters open
all hours, 15 meters possibly 1200-1930z.
From Ohio:
To Pennsylvania, 80 meters open all hours, best 0200-0900z, 40
meters open all hours, best 0200-0530z.
Sunspot numbers for June 14 through 20 were 273, 264, 276, 289, 220,
222 and 232 with a mean of 253.7. 10.7 cm flux was 194.7, 196.9,
207.6, 204.6, 221.3, 195.4 and 198.5, with a mean of 202.7, and
estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 7, 9, 34, 14 and 15 with a
mean of 14.3.
NNNN
/EX
