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A filament eruption was observed at 28/0855UT from the solar
southeast quadrant. The associated CME has been determined to
contain an Earth directed component, with an arrival to Earths
magnetosphere at 02/1100 UTC plus/minus 12 hours. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected.  INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 02 to 03 MARCH 2024.  Seven new
sunspot groups emerged this week, four on February 23, one on
February 25, another on February 26 and one more on February 28.
Solar activity increased this reporting week, February 22 to 28,
compared to the week before. Average daily sunspot number rose from
84.4 to 108.4, and solar flux from 164 to 175.  Geomagnetic
conditions were quiet, though the numbers rose.  Planetary A index
went from 4.4 to 8.4, and middle latitude numbers from 3.3 to 7.4.
The predicted solar flux is 160, 155, and 160 on March 1 to 3, 165
on March 4 and 5, 160 and 165 on March 6 and 7, 165 on March 8 and
9, 168 on March 10, then 165 on March 11 and 12, 160 on March 13 and
14, then 168 and 172 on March 15 and 16, then 175, 175 and 178 on
March 17 to 19, 180 on March 20 to 24, and 175 on March 25 and 26,
then 180 and 175 on March 27 and 28, 170 on March 29 and 30, 172 on
March 31 to April 1, 170 on April 2, and 165 on April 3 to 5.  The
predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 12 and 10 on March 1 to 4,
then 5 on March 5 to 23, then 15, 12 and 12 on March 24 to 26, and 5
on March 27 to mid April.  Spaceweather.com reported on giant
sunspot AR3590, In only 23 hours spanning February 21 and 22, the
active region unleashed three powerful X class solar flares, X1.8,
X1.7 and X6.3. The X6.3 flare is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25, so
far, and the most powerful flare since the great solar storms of
September 2017.  Because there were no CMEs, there were no
geomagnetic storms, but extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the
top of Earths atmosphere and caused several shortwave blackouts over
Hawaii and Australia on February 21 and 22.  Sunspot group AR3590 is
the largest of the current solar cycle.  Weekly Commentary on the
Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere, February 29, 2024
from OK1HH, Over the past seven days, we have seen the deflection of
an active region of AR3590 on the Sun, 760 millionths of the size of
the solar disk. On February 25, it already occupied an area of 1450
millionths, making it the largest group of spots so far since the
beginning of the 25th cycle. It produced its largest and extra
proton flares on February 21 to 22, including three X class flares
in 23 hours. The largest of these, X6.3 on 22 February, with a
maximum at 2324 UT, was the most important flare since the beginning
of Solar Cycle 25.  Proton flares were no exception and caused an
absorption in the polar cap. The first of these was recorded on 9
February in the already setting region AR3575. At the same time,
there was a region AR3576 in the southeast of the solar disk, which
will rise again in the next few days, so we do not have to worry
about a decrease in solar activity.  With the exception of the
unsettled days of February 25 to 27, the geomagnetic field was
mostly calm. We expect a similar pattern in the coming weeks.
Ideally, the mostly calm development could last until the Spring
Equinox. If this happens, shortwave propagation conditions will be
mostly above average.  This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB
contest. For details see //www.arrl.org/ .  Links to articles about
recent solar activity, sunspots, radio propagation, solar indices,
solar minima, and the latest report from dr. tamitha skov, wx6sww
can be found in teleprinter, packet, and internet versions of 2024
propagation forecast bulletin arlp009.  Sunspot numbers were 46,
116, 106, 114, 133, 103, and 127, with a mean of 106.4. 10.7 cm flux
was 173.3, 172.9, 179.2, 180.8, 171.7, 168.3, and 179.1, with a mean
of 175. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 3, 7, 13, 11, 13, and
6, with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 2, 6, 14, 10,
9, and 5, with a mean of 7.4.

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